The Accunet Mortgage and Realty Show (10-11-2025) Episode

October 2025 Market Update: How Accunet Clients Are Winning in Today’s Housing Market

## Navigating Uncertainty: What the Government Shutdown Means for Your Mortgage Rate

As we recorded this week’s show on Friday, October 11th, we found ourselves on day 10 of the government shutdown—and frankly, it’s been like working in an information desert. We missed last week’s jobs report, which typically gives us crucial signals about where mortgage rates might head. Without the usual flow of economic data, we’ve been watching rates bounce around in a fairly tight range, waiting for clarity.

But here’s where things got interesting. The Consumer Price Index report—compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has been closed like most government agencies—suddenly became a priority. Why? Because this September CPI number directly determines the cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits. And as we noted on the show, no politician wants to anger seniors who actually vote.

So certain Bureau of Labor Statistics employees are being called back specifically to complete this report. While they probably won’t have it ready by the originally scheduled October 15th release date, they’re working to get it done soon.

Now, you might be wondering: “Why should I care about a government inflation report when I’m just trying to buy a house?”

Here’s why it matters to you: The CPI measures inflation, and **inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates**. When inflation runs hot, mortgage rates climb. When it cools, we see rates improve. The Federal Reserve uses this data to guide their monetary policy decisions, and the bond market—which drives mortgage pricing—watches it closely.

We joked on the show that if the Bureau employees are already in the building working on the inflation report, maybe they could knock out the jobs report too while they’re at it. We can dream, right?

## The Day We Learned About Japanese Politics (Whether We Wanted To or Not)

Here’s a fascinating story that perfectly illustrates how interconnected global financial markets have become—and how factors completely outside your control can influence the rate on your home loan.

On Monday, a coalition formed in Japan around a candidate whose views on Japanese monetary policy were considered unfavorable for U.S. Treasuries. Mortgage rates ticked up. Then on Friday, that coalition fell apart. Rates improved.

As we said on the show: “There’s not a single home shopper on Earth tracking parliamentary developments in Japan.” Yet it was a significant hit to rates on Monday and a nice reversal on Friday.

The point isn’t that you need to start following Tokyo politics (please don’t). The point is that when you see mortgage rates move and wonder “why?”—sometimes the answer has nothing to do with the U.S. economy, your local housing market, or anything happening domestically. We monitor these global factors so you don’t have to, helping you understand when it’s a good time to lock your rate.

## Understanding Your Rate Options: Why We Present Choices Like a Menu

When people call us asking “what’s the rate on a 30-year fixed?” our answer is always: “Well, it depends on what you’re trying to accomplish.”

Right now, we’re quoting clients everything from the high 5.99% range up to the mid-6.30s on a 30-year fixed rate. That’s a pretty wide spread, and it’s intentional. We have clients choosing all different approaches based on their unique situations.

Some clients prefer paying no points upfront, taking the prevailing rate as-is and keeping their cash. Others want to pay points—prepaying some interest—to secure a lower rate and reduce their monthly payment.

**Here’s a key insight**: For every $1,000 you pay in points, you typically reduce your monthly payment by about $6.50.

Let’s break that down:

– Pay $5,000 in points? Save roughly $32-35 monthly

– Pay $10,000 in points? Save roughly $65 monthly

When we frame it this way, the decision becomes clearer. Is it worth $10,000 upfront to save $65 a month? For a client planning to stay in the home for decades with a large loan, maybe yes. For someone who might refinance when rates drop further or plans to move in a few years, probably not.

As we like to say at Accunet: “Like a good bookie, we can argue both sides of this football game.” We show you the options, explain the trade-offs, and you decide what fits best for your situation and goals.

## Southeastern Wisconsin Market Update: What Our Clients Are Experiencing

Let me share what we’re seeing in the five-county Milwaukee metro area, because this directly impacts the experiences our buyers and sellers are having right now.

### Sales Activity: Modest Growth

In September, 1,546 single-family homes and condos changed hands through a Realtor—that’s 3% more than September 2024. Not a huge jump, but growth nonetheless.

However, if we compare to pre-pandemic September 2019, we’re still down about 20%. That’s 379 fewer transactions, and we know exactly why: the lock-in effect. Somewhere around 60-65% of mortgage holders currently have rates under 4%. When you’re sitting on a 3.25% mortgage, the idea of moving and taking on a rate in the 6s is… well, let’s just say it provides motivation to stay put.

This affects our clients on both sides. Sellers with low rates hesitate to list. Buyers face less inventory than we’d see in a normal market.

### Price Trends: Two Different Markets

The median sales price across all property types rose 7% year-over-year to $362,500. But when we dig deeper, we see something interesting:

**Single-family homes**: $390,000 median (up $35,000, a 10% increase)  

**Condos**: $280,000 median (up just $4,000, a 1.5% increase)

We’re really dealing with two distinct markets here. The single-family market is showing strong appreciation while the condo market is relatively flat. This matters when we’re helping clients decide what type of property fits their budget and goals.

### Inventory: Gradually Improving

We had 2,129 new listings hit the market in September—just 2% more than last year, but here’s the important part: that’s 583 more listings than homes that closed. Inventory is growing, which helps our buyers.

Currently, we have a 2.5-month supply of homes. For context:

– Under 2 months = seller’s market

– 3-6 months = balanced market

– Over 6 months = buyer’s market

So we’re still in seller’s market territory, but trending toward balance. Our buyers are finding more options than they had earlier this year.

### Competition: Still Real, But Selective

In September, 46% of homes sold above asking price. That’s down slightly from 49% in August, and essentially flat compared to last year’s 47%.

We shared an interesting theory on the show about what we’re seeing with our clients right now: Back in 2022-2023, when inflation was running at 9%, buyers felt desperate urgency. If you were renting, you knew your rent was likely jumping significantly. That pain pushed people to compromise, to jump on houses that weren’t quite right just to escape rising costs.

Now, with inflation more stable, our buyers don’t have that same boogeyman pushing them. They’re being more selective. The really good houses still get multiple offers and go quickly. But mediocre properties are sitting longer because buyers have the luxury of being patient.

This is important for our sellers to understand: pricing and condition matter more now than they did during the peak frenzy.

## Client Success Story #1: How Value Acceptance and Speed Won the Day

Let me tell you about a client we just helped this month—someone who embodies what it takes to win in today’s market.

### The Situation

This client had wrapped up a job in Illinois over the summer, sold that home, and moved in with family here in the Milwaukee area while interviewing. By late September, everything clicked: they accepted a new position and were ready to buy.

They had all the pieces falling into place—new job, savings from their previous home sale, and high motivation. We joked on the show, “Are you going to get a puppy too?” The client responded: “We already did!” The trifecta was complete.

### What Made Them Successful

This client was incredibly proactive. They were texting us about six different homes, asking “What would the payment be on this one?” They were engaged, doing their homework, actively touring properties.

As we said on the show: “If I had to prescribe what is the key ingredient to winning a home? **Try hard.**”

### The Winning Offer

When they found the right house, they needed to compete with other offers. Here’s how we helped them win:

**The offer**: $20,000 over list price (about 4% premium)  

**The down payment**: 10%  

**The timeline**: 2.5 weeks to close

But here’s where it got really interesting. We ran the address through our underwriting software, and it came back with **value acceptance**—meaning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would accept the value at that offer price with no appraisal needed.

This is huge in a competitive situation because it means:

– No appraisal contingency for the seller to worry about

– No risk of the appraisal coming in low

– No appraisal timeline delays

– Complete certainty on value

### We Made Sure Everyone Knew About This Advantage

We didn’t just include this in the pre-approval letter. We called the listing agent directly: “Hello, this is David Wickert from Accunet Mortgage. I can confirm no appraisal is needed on this home at that price.” Then we sent a follow-up group text to the listing agent and buyer’s agent: “Just so you have it in writing—no appraisal needed.”

We wanted to make absolutely sure this advantage didn’t get overlooked in the seller’s decision-making process.

### Additional Advantages

The seller had done something smart but relatively rare—they’d already had a home inspection done and provided it with the listing. This allowed our clients to waive their inspection contingency, further simplifying their offer and reducing the seller’s risk.

With their documentation already organized, their down payment verified, and their new job documented (we can use salary from an offer letter before you even receive your first paycheck), we were ready to move fast.

### The Outcome

They got the house. And we expect they’ll be clear to close within days.

Our client said: “This has been really easy.” Our response: “Well, you brought really good ingredients to the show. The mortgage part is kind of boring, but that’s the whole point. You have to go do the hard part—moving all your worldly possessions.”

**The lesson**: Success in competitive markets comes from combining financial readiness, strategic advantages, proactive communication, and the ability to move quickly. We help you identify and leverage these advantages.

## Client Success Story #2: Optimizing Down Payment Strategy for Real Life

We had another great conversation this week that illustrates how we think about mortgage planning—not just in terms of rates and payments, but in terms of real life.

### The Situation

A single buyer was looking at a home that would need some work—some updates, repairs, that kind of thing. They came to us ready to make a $43,000 down payment, which worked out to about 12% down. They had the money and were comfortable parting with it.

But we did what we always do—we opened the door to explore whether that specific number made the most sense.

### The Triangle of Considerations

As we explained to this client, we always look at three interconnected factors:

1. **How much money leaves your savings account** (down payment plus closing costs)

1. **How much money stays in your savings account** (your emergency fund, your home improvement budget)

1. **What your monthly payment will be**

The conversation centered on this scenario: You make a $43,000 down payment, then six months later you realize you need $10,000 for home repairs or improvements. Now you’re calling us asking about a home equity line of credit—essentially borrowing back money you already put into the house.

Wouldn’t it be smarter to keep that money available from the start?

### The Math That Changes Everything

Here’s the reality we shared: **For every $1,000 in down payment, your monthly payment swings by about $6.50.**

So keeping an extra $10,000 in your pocket instead of putting it toward the down payment costs you about $65 per month.

As we put it on the show: “That is a DoorDash order. You can easily get two things of pho for $65.”

For a single buyer purchasing a home that needs work, is it worth $65 a month to have $10,000 available for repairs, improvements, or just peace of mind? Often the answer is yes.

This doesn’t mean putting less down is always better—it means the decision should be based on your real-life circumstances, not some arbitrary rule about “you should put down X%.”

### The 1-0 Temporary Buydown Option

We also explored another structure with this client: a 1-0 temporary buydown.

Here’s how it works: Instead of taking the standard rate with no points, you accept a rate that’s slightly higher long-term (say, a quarter percent more). We take the additional revenue that higher rate generates and set it aside in a payment subsidy account. For the first year, your payment is calculated as if your rate is a full percentage point lower.

So instead of paying at 6.375%, your first-year payment is calculated at 5.625%. Then in year two, your payment adjusts to reflect the true rate.

### Why Would This Make Sense?

We asked the client: “Do you think you’re going to get a pay raise at work next year?”

If you work somewhere with regular annual increases—say 4% raises—this structure lets you ease into homeownership. Your first-year payment is comfortable. By year two, when it adjusts upward, your income has also increased.

As we often tell clients, we encourage reaching for slightly more home than you need today if you’re confident about your income trajectory. Why? Because your payment stays fixed while your income grows, making it progressively more comfortable over time.

This temporary buydown follows similar logic—it matches your payment structure to your expected financial situation, not just to today’s snapshot.

### The Philosophy

The conversation reflected how we think about mortgage planning at Accunet. We’re not just trying to get you the lowest rate or push you toward the biggest down payment. We’re trying to help you make decisions that:

– Leave you with adequate cash reserves

– Match your monthly payment to your comfort level and income expectations

– Provide flexibility for your near-term needs

– Align with your broader financial goals

As we said on the show: “Like a good waiter, let me show you what’s on the menu, and then you decide what fits best.”

## The Refinance Opportunity: Breaking the “One Percent Rule”

Brian closed one this week that perfectly illustrates why the old “one percent rule” for refinancing is outdated.

The client had a loan just over $500,000. We dropped their rate by half a percent—just 0.50%—and they’re saving $244 per month. That’s nearly $3,000 per year.

As we told another client considering a refi: “We will trade you e-sign for monthly payment savings.” That’s all it is—mostly electronic signatures and documentation. If the math works, why leave that money on the table?

The decision should consider:

– The absolute dollar savings (not just the percentage point drop)

– How long until closing costs are recovered

– How long you plan to keep the home

– What else you could do with that monthly savings

For clients with larger loan balances, even a half-percent reduction can be significant. Don’t let an arbitrary rule keep you from investigating whether a refinance makes sense.

## What Sets Accunet Apart: Options, Communication, and Speed

These client stories illustrate what we do differently at Accunet:

### We Present Options

Every mortgage lender has vanilla. We show you chocolate, strawberry, and several other flavors, then you tell us what you want. No-point options. Point-buydown options. Temporary buydowns. Different down payment scenarios. We educate you on the trade-offs and let you decide what fits your life.

### We Communicate Proactively

When our client had the value acceptance advantage, we didn’t just note it in the pre-approval letter. We called the listing agent. We sent follow-up texts. We made sure everyone understood this strength. That’s the kind of advocacy that helps our clients win.

### We Move Fast

A 2.5-week close isn’t unusual for us when clients are organized and motivated. We document thoroughly upfront, we’re responsive throughout the process, and we know how to navigate underwriting efficiently. Speed matters in competitive situations.

### We Think Holistically

We’re not just trying to close a loan. We’re thinking about what happens six months from now when you need money for repairs. We’re considering your income trajectory. We’re looking at the triangle of down payment, reserves, and monthly payment. We’re helping you make decisions that work for your real life, not just for the transaction.

## Looking Ahead: What We’re Watching

As we head into the rest of October and November, here’s what we’re monitoring:

**Economic data**: Once that CPI report finally gets published, it’ll give us better insight into where the Fed might head at their October meeting. We’re also eager to see jobs data resume.

**Global factors**: Yes, even Japanese politics. We watch these broader trends so you don’t have to.

**Seasonal patterns**: Typically the market slows as weather gets colder, but we noted on the show that our seasonal lull was actually back in July. September and October have been quite active for Accunet clients, and we’re seeing that continue into November.

**Refi opportunities**: As rates gradually improve from where they were earlier this year, we’re helping more clients evaluate whether refinancing makes sense—even without that full percentage point drop.

## The Bottom Line: You’re the Hero of Your Home Buying Story

Every week on our show, we try to give you the inside scoop—what’s really happening in the market, what’s moving rates, what’s working for our clients. But ultimately, you’re the one who has to make the decisions, compare the properties, negotiate the offers, pack the boxes, and make a house into your home.

Our job at Accunet is to make the mortgage part as smooth and strategic as possible so you can focus on everything else.

Whether you’re a first-time buyer building savings, a move-up buyer trying to time your sale and purchase, or a homeowner wondering if refinancing makes sense, we’re here to show you the options, explain the trade-offs, and help you make the choice that’s right for your situation.

As we said about that client who just went under contract: “The mortgage is kind of boring, but that’s the whole point.”

When the mortgage is boring and smooth, you can focus on the exciting part—finding and moving into your new home.

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**Ready to explore your options?** Whether you’re buying, selling, or refinancing in southeastern Wisconsin, we’d love to help you write your own success story. Give us a call and let’s talk about what’s possible for your specific situation.

*Accunet Mortgage is an equal housing lender, NMLS #255368. Brian Wickert, NMLS #259610. David Wickert, NMLS #328847.*